The Housing Market Under Trump: What to Expect

By Bill Lyons | Published on February 27, 2025

For many potential home buyers who delayed their purchasing decisions until after the election results, understanding the housing market under Trump has become a top priority.

Trump’s economic-focused campaign included promises to combat inflation, reduce regulations, and implement new trade policies, which could significantly influence the housing market Trump inherits. With the election uncertainty now resolved, both industry professionals and everyday Americans are analyzing how his proposed policies might affect everything from mortgage rates to construction costs.

So, how will Trump affect the housing market? Keep reading to learn more about the potential housing market under Trump.

How Will Trump Affect the Housing Market?

The relationship between Trump and the housing market is complex, with proposed policies that could create both opportunities and challenges for the real estate sector. His approach centers on several key areas that could significantly influence housing dynamics: immigration reform, federal land use policies, international trade relationships, and potential changes to government-sponsored enterprises in the mortgage industry.

A cornerstone of the Trump housing market plan involves opening federal lands for development. The federal government currently controls approximately 650 million acres, and under this proposal, developers would bid on parcels with the requirement to maintain a percentage of affordable housing units.

Additionally, his stance on international trade, including proposed tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese goods and 20% on other imports, could have far-reaching effects on construction costs and housing affordability.

However, it’s crucial to understand that presidential policies are just one factor among many that influence the housing market. Local market conditions, Federal Reserve policies, broader economic trends, and numerous other factors shape the market, interest rates, and housing costs. As with any incoming administration, the actual impact of proposed policies may differ significantly from campaign promises once faced with the realities of governance and economic conditions.

How Trump’s Policies Could Help the Housing Market

Several of the proposed Donald Trump housing market policies could potentially create positive momentum in the housing sector:

• Opening federal lands for development: One of the major reasons why housing is so expensive these days is because there simply isn’t enough space for development. Trump plans to unlock millions of acres of government-controlled land for potential residential construction. By increasing the available land for housing development, this policy could help address supply constraints in certain markets and potentially moderate home price growth.
• Reducing regulatory burdens on construction: Trump’s proposed streamlining of building regulations could significantly lower development costs. When builders face fewer regulatory hurdles and associated expenses, these savings can translate into more competitive housing prices for consumers, potentially making homeownership more accessible. According to the National Association of Home Builders, those costs alone can count for up to 25%.
• Privatization of government-sponsored enterprises: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are government-sponsored enterprises that support the U.S. housing market by buying mortgages from lenders, packaging them into securities, and guaranteeing timely payment to investors. This system currently helps keep mortgage rates lower and more stable by providing government backing. The proposed privatization of these enterprises could introduce more competition into the mortgage market. While this would remove government guarantees, increased competition among lenders could lead to more innovative mortgage products and potentially better terms for qualified borrowers. Find out how much a different mortgage rate can affect your home affordability with the home affordability calculator.
• Immigration policy adjustments: While Trump has suggested that the housing shortage is partly due to immigrants, research shows no clear link between immigration and housing affordability. In fact, the construction industry responsible for building homes relies on immigrants as part of the workforce to help keep costs down.
• Market-oriented interest rate policies: Although the president cannot directly control interest rates, which are indirectly influenced by the Federal Reserve’s policy and follow the 10-year Treasury bond yield (for 30-year mortgages), Trump’s economic policies may create conditions that encourage lower rates. His focus on economic growth and market stability could indirectly influence mortgage rates in the future.
• Pulte to lead FHFA: Bill Pulte was announced as the pick for FHFA director. As the founder of Pulte Capital Partners and a friend of the industry, it’s expected that Pulte’s involvement will help maintain liquidity of funding for new builds to meet supply needs.

How Trump’s Policies Could Hurt the Housing Market

While some of Trump’s policies aim to improve the housing market, several proposed measures could present significant challenges. These include:

• Labor force disruption through immigration policy: Stricter immigration policies could severely impact housing construction and renovation timelines. Immigrants make up approximately 30% of the construction workforce in trades like carpentry, plastering, masonry, and electrical work. Reducing this vital labor could lead to construction delays and increased labor costs, ultimately driving up home prices.
• Federal land development challenges: While opening federal lands for construction appears promising, the practical implications raise concerns. Much of this land may be located far from employment centers, amenities, and existing infrastructure. Developers would likely focus on only the most viable areas, potentially limiting the policy’s effectiveness in addressing housing shortages where they’re most needed.
• Impact of proposed tariffs: Trump’s proposed tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese goods and 20% on other imports could significantly impact the housing market. These tariffs would likely increase costs for essential building materials and renovation supplies, potentially triggering higher inflation rates. If you know anything about inflation and the housing market, you know that higher inflation typically leads to higher mortgage rates and reduced affordability.
• Government-sponsored enterprise privatization risks: While privatizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac might increase market competition, removing government guarantees could lead to higher consumer mortgage rates. The current government backing helps maintain stable, lower interest rates; without it, lenders might charge higher rates to account for increased risk, making homeownership more expensive for many Americans.
• Government efficiency: The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) aims to streamline federal agencies, including the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). With plans to cut HUD’s budget, housing affordability could be impacted for those who would typically benefit from these programs.
• Elimination of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB): The deletion of the CFPB could open the door for predatory lending practices, which could result in more borrowers taking on mortgages outside of their budget. If there are more buyers with mortgages they can’t afford, there is a greater risk for foreclosures.

What a Trump Presidency Means for Buyers, Sellers, & Investors

So, what does a Trump presidency really mean for the housing market? With significant policy changes potentially on the horizon, buyers, sellers, and real estate investors will all be affected. Understanding how these changes affect your situation can help you make better real estate decisions over the next few years.

Buyers

If you plan to buy a home during Trump’s presidency, you’ll want to understand how his policies might affect your purchase or ability to purchase.

While there’s talk about opening up federal land for new housing, which could mean more homes to choose from and potentially better prices, the reality might be more complicated.

More housing supply could help with affordability, but you’ll need to think carefully about where these new developments are actually being built and if they make sense for your daily life.

New construction buyers should be prepared for some challenges. Trump’s proposed tariffs on building materials could push up the price of new homes, and fewer construction workers due to stricter immigration policies could mean longer wait times for your home to be finished.

Plus, if you’re looking at a newly developed area, make sure to consider how far it is from your job and nearby schools and shops. Not all new development areas will have the convenience you might want.

The mortgage market will also get interesting. If Trump moves forward with changes to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, it could affect your mortgage rates and loan options. These potential moves could push the growth of bank statement loans and other alternative mortgage loans for underserved borrowers.

While more competition among lenders can lead to some attractive rates and loan options, the flip side is that rates could be less predictable without government backing. First-time buyers especially should keep a close eye on these changes, as they could affect how much house you can afford.

Additionally, new policies may influence your decision about when to refinance. While Trump’s proposed changes could initially lead to higher rates, market competition and economic policies might create refinancing opportunities down the line. Keep in mind that you’re not locked into your initial mortgage rate forever.

If rates drop significantly after your purchase, you can explore refinancing to lower your monthly payments or switch to a different loan term that better suits your needs. When considering a refinance, just be sure to factor in closing costs and how long you plan to stay in the home.

If rates rise due to policy changes but you need to buy now, you might consider starting with a higher rate and watching for refinancing opportunities as the market adjusts to new policies. Ultimately, you want to buy a home you can afford at today’s rates while staying flexible enough to take advantage of better rates if they become available in the future.

For general questions about the home buying process, check out our home buying FAQs.

Sellers

If you’re thinking about selling your home, you’ll want to pay attention to how the market might change under the Trump administration. The possible release of federal land for new housing developments could affect home values, particularly if you live near areas marked for new construction.

Additionally, as mortgage rates change in response to new policies, this will likely influence how many buyers are actively looking for homes, which could affect your selling price and how long it takes to sell your home.

Before listing your home, you’ll need to think carefully about any repairs or updates you’re planning. New tariffs could make building materials more expensive, which might change the math on which improvements are with the investment.

Where your home is located will also matter more than ever since national policies often play out differently in local markets. Some neighborhoods might see more competition from new construction, while others might barely notice any changes.

Deciding when to sell might be trickier than usual as the market adjusts to new policies. You’ll want to closely monitor what’s happening in your specific market rather than just following national trends.

Real Estate Investors

Real estate investors will likely see some interesting shifts in the market. If Trump follows through on opening up federal land for development, there could be some solid opportunities for early investors who do their homework. The key will be spotting which locations make sense. You’ll want to look for areas close enough to where people actually work and live, with decent infrastructure already in place.

The potential changes to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac might shake things up when it comes to financing investment properties. Investors who have relied on traditional funding methods may need to explore new options or adjust their strategies. Non-qualified mortgages (Non-QM) like DSCR loans are expected to grow in 2025 because of this.

The rental market may also see some changes, especially in areas with large immigrant populations, as shifts in immigration policy could affect both the tenant pool and the construction workforce.

Smart investors will need to watch construction costs carefully. With proposed tariffs potentially driving up the price of building materials, the numbers on renovation projects and new developments might not work like they used to.

On the flip side, these challenges might create opportunities for investors who can figure out how to make projects work despite higher costs and longer timelines.

Preparing for Trump’s Housing Market

While Trump’s decisions can have major implications for the housing market, it’s never a good idea to time your real estate decisions around political changes. The reality is that we won’t know exactly how these policies will play out until they are implemented. If you’re financially ready to buy a home and plan to stay there for several years, current market conditions shouldn’t be your primary concern — remember, you can always refinance your mortgage if rates drop in the future.

It’s important to stay informed and be ready to act when the time is right for your situation. The Griffin Gold app can help you track market changes and identity opportunities. Whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or refinance, focus on your personal circumstances rather than trying to predict how political changes might affect the market. When you’re ready to move forward, Griffin Funding is here to help you find the right mortgage for you.

Get started today!

Bill Lyons

Bill Lyons is the Founder, CEO & President of Griffin Funding. Founded in 2013, Griffin Funding is a national boutique mortgage lender focusing on delivering 5-star service to its clients. Mr. Lyons has 22 years of experience in the mortgage business. Lyons is seen as an industry leader and expert in real estate finance. Lyons has been featured in Forbes, Inc., Wall Street Journal, HousingWire, and more. As a member of the Mortgage Bankers Association, Lyons is able to keep up with important changes in the industry to deliver the most value to Griffin's clients. Under Lyons' leadership, Griffin Funding has made the Inc. 5000 fastest-growing companies list five times in its 10 years in business.